Last Night:

We lost our 6 pack of Coors light betting the under.  P Holland looked bad again and really has no excuse after the 5 runs in the 4^th innings the Rangers scored that essentially should have iced the game. KC P Hochavar pitched solid aside from that one inning, and is will be a nice pickup for some future team in line for a good 3-4 starter.

Today’s Game is a 6:05 PM CST Start

Texas 63-44 (L1) -134  Kansas City Royals 45-62 (W1) +124  – Over/Under 10 Runs

Tex P Yu Darvish (11-7, 4.38 ERA) has, along with the rest of the Rangers staff, pitching below avg to terrible the past 2 weeks. Yu has given up 21 runs in his past 4 starts, but at least continues to get run support as the Rangers have scored 25 runs to help out the past 3 games. Not sure what Darvish brings tonight, but hopefully it’s his A game…

Bos P Aaron Cook (2-5, 5.24 ERA) has only lasted 4 innings in each of his last couple outings giving up 12 runs in total. He’s let the long ball fly as he’s also allowed 6 of them go in his last 3 games. Texas isn’t particularly thrilled about losing last night, and this would be a nice way to start a series by beating up a pitcher on the rocks.

Josh Hamilton Watch:

Josh got on once going 1-5, but also took 2 strikeouts and left a couple on base.  He has got a hit in 6 of his last 7, 9-33 in that time.

In the home of the Green monster, Josh goes 2-4 but finally gets the monkey off his back and put one over the wall tonight.

The Computer says:

BOSTON 5.5 TEXAS 4.2

-Less than 40% like Boston as a home dog and we’re projecting them to win SU.

-Less than 35% like the Under. Strong public consensus is now down a whopping amount (15-25%) this season.\

- Boston is 23-14 +8.8 units at home Over the total vs. plus .500 teams this season.

-Boston is 17-22 -12.4 units at home vs. plus .500 teams this season.

-Boston is only 32-41 -19.8 units vs. right handers as well.

-Additionally, Aaron Cook is only 19-34 -24.98 units career in home games off of a team win.

That all aside, we love to bet a home team in August off of a win that put them just one game behind .500; that’s 33-25 +12.1% roi since 2004.

The value is on Boston today, but we suggest passing or making a ‘beer money’ play on the winner and we’ll stay away from the total as it’s just to close to call at 10 runs.

The Play

0.5 Units Boston +124 ($5 to return $11.20)

Vocabulary

“RPG” – Runs per game

“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage

“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.

“SU” – Straight Up Winner

“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.

“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)

“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .

“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.

***If you’d like to get the full stats, on EVERY team in the league – as well as the Best bets of the night via email, sign up now to the Procomputergambler.com website and email newsletter for just $17.95 a month for viewers of Mikedyce.com (28% off) using this link.