Baseball Bets in July

Baseball Bets in July

July 26th, 2012

Mike Dyce

Thanks to MikeDyce.com for allowing us at Procomputergambler to integrate our projections and predictions into the site's fabric to crossover into what fans of the game of baseball, particularly Rangers fans want to see previewed. Every so often, particularly on Ranger rest days, I will be sharing some of thoughts about the game, along with some general baseball betting concepts. We hope you enjoy them.

Tom Herbert - Procomputergambler.com

AMERICAN BASEBALL $ IN JULY / THE STORY:

I've established that July is a blind profiting month for the favorite…perhaps the ONLY month in any sport where just by betting the favorite without thinking – yields

you a profitable return. The story of gambling baseball goes: Joe Public remembers what hurt him last, and decides to make big adjustments. Now the very nature of the sports and/or the bookmakers shift the tables…we go from dull, anti-spirited April and May, and NHL, and NBA finals driven June – “Where have all the sports gone? Fan-based heated, high tension, HOT, muggy JULY. The dogs stop barking and the ball starts flying (scientifically, heat and humidity makes the ball fly further…not to mention, common sense-wise, the starters have heat strokes on the mound).

Later in the season, the tides will turn and the dogs will start barking again as we get new young call-ups (that you should have been studying in Spring training….lucky you have me). Finally, the season will end with strong -200 ($20 to return $30) and up favorites failing….where we clean up. At this point the public is feeling that the -200 and up is the ONLY predictable thing after the wacky month of August where even I have some troubles each year. Now that bet fails, and the public starts to lose – and from experience we know to fade, or bet the other side.

THE ONLY MONTH WHERE THE FAVORITE BLIND PROFITS…

We use our sports database at killersports.com to see how the favorite does per month:

Since 2004, the favorite in July is 1889-1282 (0.

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86, 59.6%, +49.02 units).

The home favorite is 1348-845 (0.88, 61.5%, +80.6 units)!

THE MONDAY EXCEPTION:

BUT, there is an exception. As we sort out July home favorites by day of the week:

**Since 2004, July Home Favorites are only 117-96 (0.52, 54.9%, +14.61 units to fade) on Monday**

THE PREMISE:

Home favorites do so well in July because (I believe) attendance is better…even the road favorite sometimes is advantaged by a crowd more into them than their own starter. I have done extensive database work to show that there is a direct relationship between performance of an athlete, and attendance. Here are a few interesting trends to show some keys.

PROOF (USING AVG ATTENDANCE FIGURES):

*Monday Home favorites in July lose double digit units and average 32,044 spectators per Monday game.

**Saturdays yield 15.2% more spectators on average since 2004 than Mondays (37,795 [Sat] vs. 32,044 [MON])**

*Saturday are the best day for Home favorites in July (+70.48 units). WOW!

So could it be that these numbers are telling the story accurately? Can the fans actually influence the players performance in the heat of battle? The answer is unequivocally “Yes!”. Needless to say this isn't something that any major league really wants to associate itself with – reflecting performance and attendance with favorites and underdogs, but next time you watch a game, or bet on one, it's worth noting in your handicapping arsenal.

Have a great Weekend!

Tom

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