We hit the under 10.5 pretty nicely, but we backed off of Boston because of the number of conflicts of information that really, played out as it should have, with the game being lost in the 9th inning. Tex Rookie P Martin Perez pitched fantastic – clearly we’ll look for things to come from him in the near future.
Today’s Game is a 7:05 PM CST Start
Boston 49-49 (W1) +120 @ Texas 57-39 (L1) -130 – Over/Under 9.5 Runs
Bos P Josh Beckett (5-8, 4.53 ERA) has really got the short end of run support this season with 4 of his last 7 starts either just getting 1 or 2 runs to help him out. He’s been pitching overall pretty well since the rocky beginning of the season, not allowing a Homerun in his last 10 starts. He’s also been averaging just under 7 K’s in his past 3 starts.
Tex P Derek Holland (6-5, 4.84 ERA) got rocked his last time out vs the Angels giving up 9 hits and 6 Earned runs. That was the start after pitching a 4 hit gem vs Seattle. Holland’s 3-1 in 4 starts lifetime vs the Bo Sox, and has won 2 of his last 3 decisions.
The Computer says it’s a close one:
TEXAS 4.9 BOSTON 4.6
-Less than half of the public bets like Texas today as home favorites.
*Texas is only 11-22 -23.61 units this season after allowing 2 runs or less.
-After the first month of the season .500 (exactly) road teams off of a road win are only 89-129 loss of 34.64 units. Objects in motion do not necessarily stay in motion.
*Boston isn't any good this season against teams with good bullpens averaging 1.1 runs allowed per game or less. They are 7-18 -15.52 units.
Less than half like the over, but we're on the under slightly. Pass.
The leans are Texas and the Under, but we’re also here trying to teach a little discipline, and the methods to our madne
ss. Texas has shown to
have a poor bounce back game after a pitcher pitches well all season, but we’ve really noticed it the past couple of weeks. Holland is due for a bounce back, but Beckett is pitching well. This is a game with little to no edge, and we will treat it as such and lay off both ends.
You can look to Procomputergambler.com and read today’s piece about Tim Lincecum’s horrendous season taking away 9.48 Units from those who bet on him this year. Can you guess who has single handedly cost betters more money in 1 season than any pitcher since 2004?
“RPG” – Runs per game
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .
“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.
***If you'd like to get the full stats, on EVERY team in the league – as well as the Best bets of the night via email, sign up now to the Procomputergambler.com website and email newsletter for just $17.95 a month for viewers of Mikedyce.com (28% off) using this link.