Last night:

We laid off what appeared to be solid value from the Rangers, and ended up pushing the Total of 10 runs. Kind of odd both ways, to see Beantown give up 9, and to see Feldman just give up 1.  Did they really have to give up 5 in the top of 6?  Pushing is still better than losing.

Today’s Game:

Boston 48-49 (L4) -104 @ Texas 57-38 (W1) -106 – Over/Under 10.5 Runs

Bos P Clay Buchholz (8-3, 5.19 ERA) has won 4 of his last 5 decisions while really limiting runs, allowing just 15 in his last 7 starts. His high ERA is from the start of a horrible April that allowed 28 runs in just 5 starts. Since then much improved, but the Sox themselves are on a 4 game slide, and dropped below .500.

Tex P Martin Perez (1-1, 5.54 ERA) is a lot of potential waiting to happen. We’re just not sure it will be in Texas. Lots at stake tonight as he has 1-1 record as a 21 year old starter replacing Colby Lewis.  The pressure is clearly on as the Rangers look to fill the void for the rest of the year before the Trade deadline. Betting these starters are like betting horses in the 2^nd or 3^rd career start – you have so little to go on but a guess.

The Computer says:

Final Projected Score:

TEXAS 5.4 BOSTON 4.2

Texas:

-Most of the public bets are liking Texas as slight home favorites. Our raw numbers agree. This isn't a high value play either way.

*The Rangers are only 10-21 (-22.53 units) this season after a game where they only allowed 2 or fewer runs.

Boston:

-Boston is a nice 40-25 (1.1 rpg, +15.47 units) on the road since 2011 facing tough plus .500 opponents.

-Boston is only 8-16 (-1.1 rpg, -12.4 units) this season after two or more straight losses.

*Clay Buchholz is 12-1-1 (-2.6 rpg, +63.6% roi) since 2010 starting after his WHIP was under 1 last start.

-Teams o

ne game under .500 on the road are 492 – 501 +64.96 units (+6% roi) since 2004

Total
Boston is 12-2 under against the AL West this season.

Texas 51-37 over at home since 2011 against right handed starters.

One small, but interesting tidbit in this situation is that teams, when they fall below .500 tend to want to get back there. I think the timing is right to use this motivation, combined with a proven starter vs a very unproven rookie. We also think it may be a pitchers game particularly since Buchholz has been much improved the last half dozen or so starts.

The Play

1 Unit ($10.50 to return $20.50) Tex/Bos Under 10 Runs (-105) * Official PCG Play

Vocabulary

“RPG” – Runs per game

“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage

“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.

“SU” – Straight Up Winner

“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.

“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)

“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .

“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.

***If you'd like to get the full stats, on EVERY team in the league – as well as the Best bets of the night via email, sign up now to the Procomputergambler.com website and email newsletter for just $17.95 a month for viewers of Mikedyce.com (28% off) using this link.