As expected- the unexpected hit Matt Harrison, allowing 2 HR's in the 7th innings to blow the game wide open for the Angels. What sucked about that is that it looked very much like we were going to win out small Under bet, going into the bottom of 7 with just 5 runs.
Remember: Betting your hard earned money is no different than investing it. Even as entertainment. Procomputergambler doesn't like to make strong plays unless strong plays are called for. Sometimes a week or two go by without a very strong lean. But using the previews for informational purposes with a little flavor – we also like beer, and betting beer money until the time comes to bet a case or two of the happy suds.
With that said, Lets move to today!
Boston 48-48 (L3) +112 @ Texas 56-38 (L1) -122 – Over/Under 10 Runs
Bos P Felix Doubront (10-4, 4.24 ERA) has been of the few bright sports the Sox have had this year finding 6 wins and 3 losses in his last 10 starts. Generally Boston have given him run support scoring 9 or more runs in 4 of his last 6 starts while giving up just 16
Tex P Scott Feldman (3-6, 5.89 ERA) has finally picked up some steam getting his last 2 Starting Decisions after 6 straight Losses. However he's mostly been unremarkable this year with an ERA that pretty much shows much of who he has been all season. He's only had 1 career start vs the Sox out of the 7 appearances lifetime including the pen, and has just over a 5 ERA out of 16 innings pitched.
The Computer says
Final Projected Score:
TEXAS 6 RED SOX 3.7
-Texas is only SU: 2-9 (-1.3 rpg) -11.8 units (+96.4% roi fade) this season off of three or more straight games with no errors.
*Texas is 71-38 (+1.6 rpg) +23.64 units (+15.2% roi) since 2011 off a loss!
-Less than 25% of the bets like Boston on the road today. A public fade is usually money.
*This season, Boston is very bad vs. good bullpens allowing less than 1.1 average runs per game. They are SU: 7-18 (-1.6 rpg) -15.52 units (53.3% fad
-Less than 35% of the bets like the under today. We have a slight raw projection.
The problem is that, like last night, nothing is as simple as just making a projection. Matt Harrison was supposed to pitch lights out, until the lights came off in the 7th inning giving up 2 Home Runs. We will lay low here again tonight, and not pick a winner, mostly due to so much conflicting information. Many are abandoning the Sox now they they look mortal, and just got swept at home to the injury riddled Blue Jays. If anything, it's a good time to bet Boston, as they clearly, on paper, have less than a ZERO chance of winning in the eye of the public. But we'll stay disciplined and lay off rather than try to be heroes.
We'll lay a small bet on the under though, as we expect the game to actually see some reasonably good pitching that will hold under 10 runs.
0.5 Units Tex/Bos Under 10 Runs
“RPG” – Runs per game
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .
“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.
***If you'd like to get the full stats, on EVERY team in the league – as well as the Best bets of the night via email, sign up now to the Procomputergambler.com website and email newsletter for just $17.95 a month for viewers of Mikedyce.com (28% off) using this link.