The Computer had an off night on the A's who trounced the A's 6-1, (it did hit the under unofficially), but also had
a great night (2-0) on its top picks in the newsletter.
Texas 55-35 (W2) (-125) @ Oak 46-44 (L1) (+115) Over/Under 8 Runs - 2:35 P.M CST
Record 2-2 (+$5)
Tex P Colby Lewis (6-6, 3.51 ERA) gets today's nod after coming off the DL – His last start back in June 23 where he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings.
“The Aussie” – Oak P Travis Blackley (2-2, 3.20 ERA) is coming off of some fantastic starts/pen work. He's allowed just 6 runs in his past 31 innings (2-0) and hasn't given up a Long ball in over 39 innings pitched…
The Computer is showing the Rangers as almost a run favorites in this game (0.82 Run Margin) but the 2 big questions are the first start in 3 weeks from Lewis, combined with Blackley who has been pitching phenomenal.
The Computer is showing a (0.43 run margin) for the under which is a slight advantage but not incredible.
The Computer Final Project Score:
TEXAS 4 OAKLAND 3
-Less than 20% of the bets on Texas.
*The Texas Rangers are 40-15 (+2.0 rpg, +23.19 units, +33.9 % roi) since 2011 on the road off of 4 or 5 wins out of their last 5 games played.
*Texas is 10-19 (-0.9 rpg, -20.15 units, -43.1% roi) this season after allowing 2 runs or less. That's a 60.6% roi fade.
-Oakland is 23-9-1 (-1.3 rpg, +13.05 units, +34.9% roi) under the total this season against division opponents.
-Less than h
alf of the bets like the over though and it typically doesn't pay to be on the same side as the herd.
We like the idea that Lewis will likely be going at least 4-5 innings with a Pen that had had some good success as of late. Blackley if he pitches like we somewhat hope he does, will keep the game low scoring (but not too low scoring)…
We feel confident enough to lay at least 1 unit on both plays, but we're tempted to cal this an even stronger play on Lewis in this spot and lay 2 units down.
2 Units ($20) on Texas (To return $36)
1 Unit ($10) on Tex/Oak Under 8 Runs (To return $19)
“RPG” – Runs per game
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Under” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events.
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