July 15th, 2012 
Mike Dyce 
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Last Night:
Felix Hernandez 3 hit the Rangers along with his 12 K's, while Yu Struggled out of the gate allowing 7 runs, 4 in the first inning to take the 7-0 Loss. The Computer called this one nicely, overvaluing what seemed to be a “gimme” for the Rangers and getting our first “official” win of the year calling the M's.
The Computer Record, 1-0 (+$10)
Today's Action
Rangers 53-35 L1 (-177) @ Seattle 37-52 W1 (+167)
Tex P Harrison (11-4, 3.10 ERA) gets the start in the rubber match. Harrison took his first loss last start vs the White Sox after after winning his last 7 decisions. In his last 10 starts he's only given up 2 Home Runs over 70 innings pitched. He's also 8-1 (2.51 ERA) Vs Seattle lifetime.
Sea P Iwakuma (1-1, 4.84 ERA) comes off of his first start of his Major League Career after being reserved to
mostly long reliever until now. Last game vs the O's he allowed 1 Homerun that account for the entire Baltimore offense in the 4th, but ended up with a no decision. Iwakuma is clearly the Wildcard in this matchup. From the wagering perspective, the Computer calls 'em as it seem 'em, without bias.
The Computers Projected Final Score:
TEXAS 3 MARINERS 4
Some key trends:
-Less than 20% of the public likes Seattle and less than 20% like the over.
-Texas starter Matt Harrison is 26-15 (+1.22 rpg, 63.4%) +$1363 on the road.
*He's 8-0 under the total (-4.5 average rpg) this season against sub .500 opponents.
*He's 9-0 under the total as a -150 or more favorite this season.
**The Rangers are 24-5 (+2.9 rpg, +16.52 unts, +38% roi) since 2011 revenging a loss where they got in 1 or 0 zero runs.
***In a three game series matchup, take the home dog in series game 2 or 3 that won game one committing zero errors (opponent committed > 0 errors). Eliminate the first and last month of the season and isolate +110 to +170 odds home dogs. Since 2005 this is SU: 115-98 (54%, +24.4% Roi)
The last trend above may look confusing, but this is what the Computer (and the guy that runs it) looks for, things that most people don't see. Home Underdogs are a very powerful play in all sports, but getting value on them in baseball is a key to making money in the long run. There is little support from the public for the M's at home, especially with Harrison's stats overall, particularly on the road. Defensively however, the M's have no committed an error in the series yet, and the Rangers have made 2, which as small as this sounds, can be the difference in the tight game we expect this one to be.
> We're going to make 1 half unit play on the Mariners because there is incredible value on them at +167 ($10, to return $26.7), and an average 1 Unit play on the “under” of 8 runs.
Summary
0.5 Units ($5) on Seattle
1 Unit ($10) On Seattle
Vocabulary
“RPG” – Runs per game
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“RL” – Run Line – Winning by 2 runs or More – Getting a bigger return than just winning by 1 run or more.
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Under” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined runs of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events.
“Home Dog Value” - Being an underdog at home is typically one of the more powerful opportunities in sport.
“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.
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